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geoff · Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 705 Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

How would an 'exit' vote affect the UK... And more importantly Uplyme?
Would we even notice? Do we even care?

I have heard heartfelt arguments from both camps and frankly neither side seems to make an overwhelming case so should the status quo prevail? Would we be better off with complete control of our own affairs or does Europe force us into environmentally friendly policies that the UK government might have resisted otherwise?

One thing is for sure... we all have a democratic vote on this one, so what do you think?

Geoff.

Rhodie · Posted: 13/03/16, 22:34 Post subject:

At the moment I don’t consider myself well enough informed about the pros and cons of the issue to cast my vote, but as things are going will I be better informed in three months time? I doubt it.

We have seen what a Tory government is like once the controlling influence of the LibDems was taken away particularly regarding green issues. I dread to think what a Tory government would be like free of the EU. What irks me here would the thought of being on the chameleon’s side, perish the thought. The only consolation here is that the alternative of Boris, IDS, Gove, Farage and Galloway is even worse.
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geoff · Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 705 Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

Hi Rhodie,

I'd agree with that. I have been trying to access unbiassed arguments for either side and have pretty much failed. Whenever I listen to a 'stay' campaigner they seem to make reasonable arguments, but then the same is true of the 'leave' campaigners.

Perhaps the argument is finely balanced and there are no great benefits for us all either way ?

I do think that controlling our borders is pretty important, but I also think that controlled immigration of useful, law abiding foreigners is a great thing.

G
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Guy · Joined: 10 Dec 2005 Posts: 6 Location: Uplyme

If you're uncertain and don't feel you've received sufficient information, come to the forum at Woodmead Hall in Lyme - Saturday April 16, 10:30 coffee and cakes, 11-12:30 panel discussion and Q&A.

Yes, it's organized by Stronger In, but they're reasonable and well-informed people and they know both sides. Personally, I love Europe. After living 35 years in the US, I came back not only to be in my native country but to be close to and part of Europe. It's the benign superpower; if there's a way forward for the world, it's being shown by Europe, not America or China or Russia. Examples of the many details that have impressed me: Lyme's beach would still have its failing grade for sanitation if it hadn't been compelled to meet the higher EU standard. And: The EU funded a drive in Madagascar to register children; important, because if the government doesn't know they exist they don't go to school, and are condemned to life on garbage heaps. It's things like this that impress me, rather than what the effect will be on my own pocket, but I'm convinced also of the overall advantage to Britain.

The component states of the US, Russia, and China can't leave - if they trym they suffer the fate of Chechnya or Tibet. The members of the EU can, because it's something new in the world, a democracy of states, instead of a top-down empire. But for Britain to cripple the EU by falling away will be a tragedy for both.
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geoff · Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 705 Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

Hi Guy,

As far as I can see at the moment, there seem to be few downsides to leaving and several benefits. In particular having greater control of who comes and goes through our borders - surely a vital issue ? I'm certainly not anti-immigration as long as it is carefully controlled, but I do object to having no control over allowing in pretty much anyone, including criminals.

I do see however that some good thngs have also come from our membership, for example forcing our government to follow stricter environmental policies than they probably would have otherwise.

G
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Guy · Joined: 10 Dec 2005 Posts: 6 Location: Uplyme

Some of the downsides of exit are that no one knows the details of what will happen because so much will have to be renegotiated; that Britain will have much less influence in these negotiations; that Scotland will probably leave the UK in order to stay in Europe; that much trade with Europe will be lost; that many needed employees in for instance the catering industry and in medicine will be lost.

As for control of immigration: the pressure of refugees will continue and increase as long as the causes (Middle East politics, climate change) do, but meanwhile the mitigation for Europe can only be found in common planning by Europe, in which Britain should join. Cooperation is the way to improve control over migration, transnational crime, transnational corporations, and tax havens.
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geoff · Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 705 Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

I'm not so sure about the argument that exit could lead to uncertainty etc. We are only now emerging from the most serious financial situation for decades. I really don't think there's any certainty in life.

As for renegociations they have been going on ever since we joined ?

G.
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Guy · Joined: 10 Dec 2005 Posts: 6 Location: Uplyme

I'm very far from being expert on finance, but one indicator is vivid to me personally: I have to transfer my money from America, where I earn it, and ever since the referendum loomed up the exchange rate has been more favorable for me by 10 to 15 percentage points. In other words the very possibility that Britain might leave the EU has caused the world's confidence in the pound to drop.
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geoff · Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 705 Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

Same with me Guy and you make a good point but a lower exchange rate on the pound can be a good thing as well.

Until recently, manufacturers had been complaining that a strong pound was harming their competitiveness and leading to a slowdown in manufacturing.

As with any complex issue it will probably bring a mix of outcomes some good and some bad, but as far as I can see there are no certainties.

This is where I came into this discussion really because neither side offers any clear cut advantages or disadvantages. You can always argue the other hand...

Cheers,
Geoff.
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